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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model