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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP