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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

SEA
61.2%
ARI
38.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.093 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SEA

Mario Edwards DE Out Knee
Phil Haynes G Out Toe
Abraham Lucas T Out Knee
Kenny McIntosh RB Out Thumb
Jason Peters T Questionable Foot
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Knee
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Ankle
Nick Bellore LB Questionable Knee

ARI

D.J. Humphries T Out Knee
Dante Stills DE Out Knee
Garrett Williams CB Out Ankle
Andre Chachere S Questionable Shoulder
Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Foot
Leki Fotu DT Questionable Hand
Dennis Gardeck LB Questionable Knee
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Wilkinson G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 21
–
ARI 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:08 FG SEA (5:08) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q2 11:10 FG ARI (11:10) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SEA 3 – ARI 3
  • Q2 07:11 TD SEA (7:11) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-W.Dissly for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ARI 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG ARI (2:00) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SEA 10 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – ARI 6
  • Q3 10:40 TD ARI (10:40) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ARI 12
  • Q4 09:52 TD ARI (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ARI 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD SEA (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 31%

    (11:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-47-E.Turner.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (5:08) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 20 for 15 yards (84-E.Higgins; 47-E.Turner).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to ARI 11, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 5 yards (58-D.Hall, 31-D.Dallas).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (11:10) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-58-D.Hall.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to ARI 22, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (3:47) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-0-Z.Pascal.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (2:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to ARI 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 39 for 11 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 6 yards (83-D.Young; 20-J.Love).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 72%

    (3:20) 1-K.Murray in at QB. 4-R.Moore right end pushed ob at SEA 30 for 5 yards (55-D.Jones).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (3:00) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.