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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-58-D.Hall.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP