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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 48

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-0-Z.Pascal.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model