4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 1-K.Murray in at QB. 4-R.Moore right end pushed ob at SEA 30 for 5 yards (55-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.05 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model