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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model