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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP