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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to ARI 11, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 5 yards (58-D.Hall, 31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model