Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 63

Houston Texans 24 – Cleveland Browns 14

(11:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model