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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Saturday 2024-01-13 · 16:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CLE
31.7%
HOU
68.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.127 vs Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.039 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Joe Flacco in place of Jeff Driskel)
  • HOU offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CLE defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

CLE

Dustin Hopkins K Out left Hamstring
Cedric Tillman WR Out Concussion
Grant Delpit S Out Groin
Mike Ford CB Questionable Calf
Pierre Strong RB Questionable Back
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Jerry Hughes DE Out Ankle
Will Anderson DE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Beck FB Questionable Calf
Noah Brown WR Questionable Back
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Hip
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Ankle
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Shoulder
Robert Woods WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
HOU 45

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:32 FG HOU (5:32) 15-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. CLE 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 02:12 TD CLE (2:12) 53-N.Harris and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – HOU 3
  • Q1 00:18 TD HOU (:18) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – HOU 9
  • Q2 12:23 TD CLE (12:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – HOU 10
  • Q2 12:13 TD HOU (12:13) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 16
  • Q2 01:19 TD HOU (1:19) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 86-D.Schultz for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 23
  • Q3 06:21 TD HOU (6:21) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [95-D.Barnett] at HOU 18. 21-S.Nelson for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 30
  • Q3 04:13 TD HOU (4:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris at CLE 36. 48-C.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 37
  • Q4 13:33 TD HOU (13:33) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – HOU 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 31%

    (10:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche to CLE 8 for 2 yards (17-K.Boyd; 37-D.Ross).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (5:32) 15-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:34) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris at CLE 36. 48-C.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 68%

    (1:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at 50 for -13 yards (48-C.Harris).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Njoku.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (7:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 65%

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at HOU 47 for -9 yards (93-K.Hinish).