4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 52

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Proche to CLE 8 for 2 yards (17-K.Boyd; 37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP