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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 87

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model