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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 41 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model