Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.256 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.221 EPA/dropback
- DAL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
GB
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:12 TD GB (7:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 0
- Q2 14:19 TD GB (14:19) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DAL 0
- Q2 03:28 TD GB (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 13-D.Wicks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – DAL 0
- Q2 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB 36. 26-D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – DAL 0
- Q2 00:02 TD DAL (:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – DAL 6
- Q3 09:27 FG DAL (9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. GB 27 – DAL 10
- Q3 06:41 TD GB (6:41) 33-A.Jones right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 33 – DAL 10
- Q3 03:07 TD DAL (3:07) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 34 – DAL 16
- Q3 01:36 TD GB (1:36) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 88-L.Musgrave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 40 – DAL 16
- Q4 10:28 TD GB (10:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 47 – DAL 16
- Q4 05:58 TD DAL (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 48 – DAL 22
- Q4 03:30 TD DAL (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 48 – DAL 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%
(4:03) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at GB 9.
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Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%
(1:33) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%
(9:14) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 7, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Tolbert.
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Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%
(10:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 49 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 38%
(4:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 41 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 58%
(2:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%
(:25) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle.