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Green Bay Packers

9-8 HC Matt LaFleur
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Dallas Cowboys

12-5 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2024-01-14 · 16:30 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

GB
44.4%
DAL
55.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.256 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.221 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 25 18–32
–
DAL 28 21–35
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 53

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

GB

A.J. Dillon RB Doubtful Thumb
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Cooper Rush QB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 48
–
DAL 32

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 TD GB (7:12) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 0
  • Q2 14:19 TD GB (14:19) 33-A.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 03:28 TD GB (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 13-D.Wicks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – DAL 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB 36. 26-D.Savage for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – DAL 0
  • Q2 00:02 TD DAL (:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – DAL 6
  • Q3 09:27 FG DAL (9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. GB 27 – DAL 10
  • Q3 06:41 TD GB (6:41) 33-A.Jones right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 33 – DAL 10
  • Q3 03:07 TD DAL (3:07) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 34 – DAL 16
  • Q3 01:36 TD GB (1:36) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 88-L.Musgrave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 40 – DAL 16
  • Q4 10:28 TD GB (10:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 47 – DAL 16
  • Q4 05:58 TD DAL (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 48 – DAL 22
  • Q4 03:30 TD DAL (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 48 – DAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (4:03) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at GB 9.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%

    (1:33) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (9:14) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 7, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (9:27) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Tolbert.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (10:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 38%

    (4:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 58%

    (2:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (:25) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle.

    See the full breakdown →