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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 48 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model