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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 48 – Dallas Cowboys 32

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DAL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP