Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to GB 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at GB 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.32 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP

KICK -0.72 EP

38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model