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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 2

Detroit Lions 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:16) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model