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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-01-14 · 20:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

LA
49.3%
DET
50.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.120 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.113 EPA/dropback (LA starting Matthew Stafford in place of Carson Wentz)

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LA

Bobby Brown DT Questionable Illness
Jordan Fuller S Questionable Ankle
Kevin Dotson G Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Shoulder
Joseph Noteboom T Questionable Foot
Troy Reeder LB Questionable Knee

DET

Jerry Jacobs CB Out Thigh
James Mitchell TE Out Hand
Kalif Raymond WR Out Knee
James Houston LB Out Ankle
John Cominsky DE Questionable Illness
Sam LaPorta TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 23
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD DET (9:33) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:29 FG LA (4:29) 8-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – DET 7
  • Q1 01:35 TD DET (1:35) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – DET 13
  • Q2 13:32 TD LA (13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-P.Nacua for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – DET 14
  • Q2 07:16 TD DET (7:16) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – DET 20
  • Q2 04:11 TD LA (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – DET 21
  • Q3 08:45 FG DET (8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. LA 17 – DET 24
  • Q3 02:36 FG LA (2:36) 8-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – DET 24
  • Q4 08:13 FG LA (8:13) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 23 – DET 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (4:29) 8-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 50%

    (4:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at DET 38 for 6 yards (2-C.Gardner-Johnson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (1:06) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to LA 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell. PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:24) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (8:45) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (2:36) 8-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to LA 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (8:13) 8-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:26) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to LA 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

    (4:15) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at DET 17 for 4 yards (26-D.Shelley).