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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at DET 38 for 6 yards (2-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model