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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 45

Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to LA 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell. PENALTY on LA-6-T.Tomlinson, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model