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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model