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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 62

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to LA 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model