4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 69

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to LA 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model