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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at DET 17 for 4 yards (26-D.Shelley).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP