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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3
What Actually Happened
(7:03) 1-R.White left end to PHI 35 for 7 yards (55-B.Graham).
The Three Options
GO
+1.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.26 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK
-0.21 EP
- 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
