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Philadelphia Eagles

11-6 HC Nick Sirianni
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9-8 HC Todd Bowles
Monday 2024-01-15 · 20:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI
37.3%
TB
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21 14–28
–
TB 24 17–31
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

PHI

Sydney Brown S Out Knee
A.J. Brown WR Out Knee
Reed Blankenship S Questionable Groin

TB

Mike Greene DT Out Calf
K.J. Britt LB Questionable Calf
Josh Hayes CB Questionable Quadricep
Baker Mayfield QB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 9
–
TB 32

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:05 FG TB (10:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. PHI 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 05:59 TD TB (5:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 19-D.Moore for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 14:08 FG TB (14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. PHI 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 11:36 FG PHI (11:36) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – TB 13
  • Q2 05:40 FG TB (5:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. PHI 3 – TB 16
  • Q2 03:10 TD PHI (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – TB 16
  • Q3 02:28 SAF TB (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left [98-A.Nelson]. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. PHI 9 – TB 18
  • Q3 01:30 TD TB (1:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – TB 24
  • Q4 05:47 TD TB (5:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – TB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (10:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:14) 10-B.Mann punts 35 yards to TB 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:35) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to TB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 24 for 13 yards (43-M.Garner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%

    (14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (11:36) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%

    (7:03) 1-R.White left end to PHI 35 for 7 yards (55-B.Graham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 80%

    (5:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (1:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PHI 5, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to TB 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:29) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:25) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 11 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (3:48) 5-J.Camarda punts 35 yards to PHI 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (12:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (24-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 40 for 7 yards (35-J.Dean).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

    (1:15) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 22-C.Edmonds up the middle to PHI 34 for 2 yards (3-N.Smith; 29-A.Maddox).

    See the full breakdown →