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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model