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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 36 for 11 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.87 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model