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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP