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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at PHI 40 for 7 yards (35-J.Dean).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -1.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model