4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 10-B.Mann punts 35 yards to TB 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP