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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to TB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 24 for 13 yards (43-M.Garner).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model