Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:36) 11-J.Stout punts 66 yards to KC 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 14 for 8 yards (83-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model