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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-01-28 · 15:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

KC
30.4%
BAL
69.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.189 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
BAL 28
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

KC

No players on the report.

BAL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17
–
BAL 10

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 TD KC (7:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 05:09 TD BAL (5:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 10:59 TD KC (10:59) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG KC (:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 17 – BAL 7
  • Q4 02:38 FG BAL (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. KC 17 – BAL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:36) 11-J.Stout punts 66 yards to KC 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 14 for 8 yards (83-D.Chisena).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 52%

    (9:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 28 for 13 yards (21-B.Stephens).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right guard to KC 45 for 21 yards (38-L.Sneed).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (6:23) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to BAL 13 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:00) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-R.James to KC 29 for 10 yards (83-D.Chisena; 30-T.Simpson).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 30 yards to BAL 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-L.Perine.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%

    (1:52) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to KC 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 70%

    (:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BAL 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:21) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (2:42) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to KC 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-26-G.Stone.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to BAL 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 36 for no gain (2-J.Williams, 31-N.Jones).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 34%

    (10:44) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to BAL 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-Ju.Watson.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 24 for 6 yards (21-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 46 for 21 yards (27-C.Conner).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.