Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(4:00) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-R.James to KC 29 for 10 yards (83-D.Chisena; 30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.05 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model