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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.87 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model