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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BAL 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP