Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(12:21) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to KC 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.70 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model