Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(7:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model