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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to BAL 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-Ju.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model