Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(5:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 46 for 21 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model