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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Shotgun) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right guard to KC 45 for 21 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model