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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 17 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 6 yards (13-M.Hollins; 39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model