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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
31.4%
BUF
68.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

ARI

Xavier Weaver WR Out Oblique
Joey Blount S Questionable Back
Tip Reiman TE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Javon Solomon DE Out Oblique
Dawuane Smoot DE Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 28
–
BUF 34

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:54 TD ARI (7:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG ARI (15:00) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – BUF 0
  • Q2 09:51 FG BUF (9:51) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. ARI 10 – BUF 3
  • Q2 02:44 TD ARI (2:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:25 TD BUF (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – BUF 9
  • Q3 09:55 TD BUF (9:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – BUF 16
  • Q3 02:43 TD BUF (2:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – BUF 23
  • Q4 13:35 FG ARI (13:35) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-74-I.Adams has returned to the game. ARI 20 – BUF 24
  • Q4 08:51 TD BUF (8:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – BUF 30
  • Q4 08:44 TD ARI 2-T.Bass kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to ARI 4. 20-D.Dallas for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – BUF 31
  • Q4 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. ARI 28 – BUF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (9:51) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 31 for 7 yards (16-M.Melton).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:28) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 6 yards (13-M.Hollins; 39-C.Lewis).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 96%

    (3:24) 17-J.Allen up the middle to ARI 11 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins; 7-K.White).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (13:35) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-74-I.Adams has returned to the game.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 54%

    (10:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 32 for 5 yards (7-K.White).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 16%

    (5:28) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to ARI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-41-R.Gilliam.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 28 yards to ARI 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 88%

    (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 4-G.Dortch (46-J.Ingram). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 2.