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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-74-I.Adams has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP