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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 24 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 32 for 5 yards (7-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model