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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 28 yards to ARI 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model