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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 31 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model